S&P 500 Futures Hourly Technical Analysis Grid

E-mini S&P 500 Futures Contract (March 2014 Expiration)

/ESH4 Hourly

S&P 500 Futures Daily Technical Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract

/ESH4 Daily Timeframe

Market Profile & Outlook

Market Outlook

MONTHLY - Bullish. However fourth month higher. Overbought on this time frame. 

WEEKLY - Bearish. Large weekly decline engulfing last four weeks of consolidating action. 

DAILY - Bearish. A move below prior day's low, however trendline support and prior highs have held thus far. Outlook becomes more bearish if we close a daily bar below yesterdays low.

Dow Jones Industrial Average	16417.01	-41.23	-0.26%
S&P 500 Index	1781.56	-8.73	-0.49%
Nasdaq Composite	4083.61	-44.56	-1.08%
Nasdaq 100	3509.02	-32.46	-0.92%
Russell 2000	1127.73	-16.41	-1.43%
Spot Gold	1256.67	-14.30	-1.13%
Crude Oil	95.73	-1.19	-1.23%
NYSE Overall Volume	3,992,839K	n/a	-13.80%
Nasdaq Overall Volume	2,357,846K	n/a	-4.73%
NYSE Breadth	2.34 : 1	negative
Nasdaq Breadth	4.25 : 1	negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio	29.98
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio	19.04
NYSE Advancers/Decliners	-1477
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners	-1410
NYSE Trin	1.56
Nasdaq Trin	1.18
$VIX	12.53	0.25

Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Tuesday
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here	ES	NQ
Value Area High	1787.25	3527.50
Point of Control	1781.25	3508.00
Value Area Low	1774.75	3492.00
R3	1812.83	3604.25
R2	1801.92	3573.00
R1	1788.83	3538.00
Pivot	1777.92	3506.75
S1	1764.83	3471.75
S2	1753.92	3440.50
S3	1740.83	3405.50

Dollars & Cents

Volatility remains high as U.S. equities continued the tumble they experienced over the last few days. With stocks like Ford, Yahoo, DuPont, Amgen and other many major companies reporting earnings Tuesday volatility is likely to remain high. Then on Tuesday’s heels is the Fed announcement on Wednesday which should spread higher volatility into the currency market.

The EUR/USD created in interesting situation where we were looking for a close below Friday’s candle at resistance to provide confirmation of more bearishness. Well today it did close below the body of Friday’s candle but it only cleared it by 4 pips which is essentially meaningless. We will continue to watch for more bearish confirmation and a drop to support. (see EUR/USD below)

The EUR/GBP gapped lower on the weekend open and sold off from there taking back much of Friday’s gain. The move indicates that we took profit at the right time and are now watching for another bullish rally which should happen Tuesday or Wednesday. (see EUR/GBP below)

The GBP/AUD didn’t give us much to say as the pair had a very tight trading range and like the EUR/USD only traded 4 pips off its previous close. We are short this pair and will hold our position for now as we wait for it to sell off. (see GBP/AUD below)

 

 

FX Economic Calendar

 

Up and coming economic data relative to FX markets that may move markets this week.

Date	Time (GMT)	Currency	Description	Importance	Forecast	Previous
01/28/14		EUR	German Retail Sales (YoY)	Medium		1.60%
01/28/14	5:00	JPY	Small Business Confidence	Medium		51.1
01/28/14	9:30	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	High		1.90%
01/28/14	9:30	GBP	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	Medium		0.80%
01/28/14	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders	High	1.00%	3.50%
01/28/14	13:30	USD	Durables Ex Transportation	Medium		1.20%
01/28/14	14:00	USD	S&P/CS 20 City (MoM) SA	Medium		1.10%
01/28/14	15:00	USD	Consumer Confidence	High	80	78.1
01/28/14	23:30	AUD	Westpac Leading Index (MoM)	Medium		-0.10%
01/29/14	7:00	EUR	German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey	Medium		7.6
01/29/14	7:00	CHF	UBS Consumption Indicator	Medium		1.43
01/29/14	12:00	USD	MBA Mortgage Applications	Medium
01/29/14	19:00	USD	Fed QE3 Pace	High		$75
01/29/14	19:00	USD	Fed Pace of Treasury Pur	High		$40
01/29/14	19:00	USD	Fed Pace of MBS Purchases	High		$35
01/29/14	19:00	USD	Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision	High		0.25%
01/29/14	20:00	NZD	Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision	High	2.50%	2.50%
01/29/14	23:50	JPY	Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen)	Medium
01/29/14	23:50	JPY	Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen)	Medium
01/29/14	23:50	JPY	Retail Trade (YoY)	Medium		4.00%
01/29/14	23:50	JPY	Large Retailers' Sales	Medium		0.60%
01/30/14	0:00	AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	Medium		7.50%
01/30/14	8:00	CHF	KOF Swiss Leading Indicator	Medium		1.95
01/30/14	8:55	EUR	German Unemployment Rate s.a.	High
01/30/14	8:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change	High		-15K
01/30/14	9:30	GBP	Net Consumer Credit	Medium		0.6B
01/30/14	9:30	GBP	Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings	Medium		0.9B
01/30/14	9:30	GBP	Mortgage Approvals	Medium		70.8K
01/30/14	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Economic Confidence	Medium		100
01/30/14	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence	Medium
01/30/14	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Services Confidence	Medium		0.2
01/30/14	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence	Medium		-3.4
01/30/14	13:00	EUR	German Consumer Price Index (YoY)	High		1.40%
01/30/14	13:00	EUR	German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM)	Medium		0.50%
01/30/14	13:00	EUR	German Consumer Price Index (MoM)	Medium		0.40%
01/30/14	13:00	EUR	German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)	High		1.20%
01/30/14	13:30	USD	Gross Domestic Product (Annualized)	High	3.60%	4.10%
01/30/14	13:30	USD	Gross Domestic Product Price Index	High		2.00%
01/30/14	13:30	USD	Personal Consumption	High		2.00%
01/30/14	13:30	USD	Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ)	High		1.40%
01/30/14	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	Medium
01/30/14	13:30	USD	Continuing Claims	Medium
01/30/14	15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales (YoY)	Medium		-4.00%
01/30/14	21:45	NZD	Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars)	Medium		183M
01/30/14	21:45	NZD	Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars)	Medium		-248M
01/30/14	23:15	JPY	Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index	Medium		55.2
01/30/14	23:30	JPY	Household Spending (YoY)	Medium		0.20%
01/30/14	23:30	JPY	Jobless Rate	Medium		4.00%
01/30/14	23:30	JPY	National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)	Medium		1.20%
01/30/14	23:30	JPY	National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY)	Medium		0.60%
01/30/14	23:30	JPY	National Consumer Price Index (YoY)	High		1.50%
01/30/14	23:50	JPY	Industrial Production (YoY)	Medium
01/31/14	0:05	GBP	GfK Consumer Confidence Survey	Medium		-13
01/31/14	0:30	AUD	Private Sector Credit (YoY)	Medium		3.80%
01/31/14	5:00	JPY	Housing Starts (YoY)	Medium		14.10%
01/31/14	5:00	JPY	Annualized Housing Starts	Medium		1.033M
01/31/14	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY)	Medium		0.80%
01/31/14	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate	Medium		12.10%
01/31/14	10:00	EUR	Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)	High
01/31/14	13:30	CAD	Gross Domestic Product (MoM)	Medium		0.30%
01/31/14	13:30	USD	Personal Income	Medium	0.20%	0.20%
01/31/14	13:30	CAD	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	High		2.70%
01/31/14	13:30	USD	Personal Spending	Medium	0.30%	0.50%
01/31/14	13:30	USD	Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY)	Medium		1.10%
01/31/14	14:45	USD	Chicago Purchasing Manager	Medium	58	59.1
01/31/14	14:55	USD	U. of Michigan Confidence	Medium