Sunday, March 31, 2013

Market Internals -- Increased Volume

Dow Jones Industrial Average14578.54 52.380.36%
S&P 500 Index 1569.19 6.34 0.41%
Nasdaq Composite 3267.52 11.00 0.34%
Nasdaq 100 2818.68 8.71 0.31%
Russell 2000 951.54 1.30 0.14%
Spot Gold 1597.80 -8.15 -0.51%
Crude Oil 97.24 0.56 0.58%
NYSE Overall Volume 3,220,214K n/a 11.74%
Nasdaq Overall Volume 1,588,392K n/a 12.71%
NYSE Breadth 1.93 : 1 positive
Nasdaq Breadth 1.75 : 1 positive
NYSE Breadth Ratio 65.86
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio 63.62
NYSE Advancers/Decliners 739
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners 310
NYSE Trin 0.86
Nasdaq Trin 0.75
$VIX 12.70 -0.45

Market Outlook -

MONTHLY - Bullish - Large body candle with expansion of range. Targeting all time high of 1576.09 now.

WEEKLY - Bullish - Follow through on last week's hammer bar.

DAILY - Bullish - Still holding near upper end of dominant channel. Channel resistance is now at 1587.00.

ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores



ShadowTrader Sector breadth was bullish for the third straight day. Seventeen sectors closed higher while eight closed lower. By our measure, the broad market can move higher one more day before reaching overbought conditions.

Saturday, March 30, 2013

'Fibonaccially' Fan Forecasted All-Time High Close


This Fibonacci Fan was anchored at the low, 1535. From this point it was drawn out one day (notice the white dashed lines overlapping the black tangent into the first day), so that the lows were contained by the .618 Phi tangent. This technique is based on the same mindset that is used in drawing Fibonacci Retracements. If one is familiar with how Fibonacci Fans are produced, it would be the next logical step, that an ultimate target would lie down the line (The way the .382, .5,  & .618 tangents are created off of the zero tangent is described in an Education/ Drawing Tool video at YouTube.com/dWbstreet). But to stay on topic, notice that not only did the trading completely mirror the zero tangent line, spending almost identical amounts of time above and below it--it ulimately accurately produced the closing price on three of the next four days!@! This is no coincidence. Mathematics are undeniable Laws of the Universe. This can be summed up to a child as simply as a vibration, or a ripple in a pond where the rock skipped. The bigger the rock, and the higher it's dropped (or thrown, indicating even more acceleration) from, the larger and larger, exponentially, or 'Fibonaccially' the ripple/wave!!@@!!!!@@!!

dWbShadowTrader Quad


Price oscillated at Fair Value throughout the premarket hours. Once the Failed New Low printed early in the morning and the Value Area Low (VAL) was breached, there was a final retest of VAL. From here price attempted to break above Value Area High (VAH), retraced to the Point of Control (POC) and opened the New York Market at VAH. Advance/Decline Breadth and Up/Down Volume ratios opened positively, with cumulative TICK printing bullish at the start of trading. A quick retracement to VAH coincided with support from the 110 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the Breadth and Up/Down Volume: this effectively took prices on a nice rally for the rest of the morning. The action on the Double Stochastic on the 21 minute aggregation of price showed the 'Rubber Band' action I continue to refer to. This occurs when the Long Term Stochastic (LTS) is printing white, indicating an extremely positive reading, and meanwhile the shorter term Stochastic pulls back to the zero line like a Slingshot. Once prices resume up from the retracement, the Short Term Stochastic joins the LTS in the extreme positive reading area, and prints green along with the LTS' white. This action combines with the fact that the Ergodic Oscillator's movement during this same reaction, never breached the zero line on the retracement down, thereby joining the Double Stochastic in extremely positive readings. This is the ideal endpoint the trader is looking for in a long trade prior to exiting the position. We should also note the Double Moving Averages provided excellent support for price mid-day and confirmation was provided with a PPS buy arrow (John Person's PPS, proprietary indicator). It would be remiss not to mention that the lows in the premarket were supported by the POC of the 20 day Market Profile and TPO Profile (Time-Price Opportunity).

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765 TTM



A TTM Squeeze fired a buy signal at the open on the 233 Tick chart. The fractal nature of this Futures product was clearly apparent, as Squeezes fired in succession from the Low Tick charts, to the Intermediate Tick charts, to the Long Tick charts. As the buy signal on the 233 began to turn from Cyan to Blue, the 377 began to fire its' buy signal. Then as the 377 began to turn to Blue, the 610 began to fire a Buy signal. This pattern continued all the way to the 6765 Tick, where the largest move was seen, that ultimately took prices to the highs of the day and eclipsed the All-Time closing High. The trades were so mechanical, it felt like taking candy: The A Waves were consistently above zero and inclining while the C Waves were rising from below or gaining momentum above the zero level. I wish every day's trading was this predicable. I called these trades out one after another on the Live YouTube DayTrade feed (www.YouTube.com/dWbstreet). It is also of note, the William's Alligator Jaw provided the most consistent entries for each of these trades, on each of the respective Tick levels Squeeze Signals.

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765



Prices came out of the premarket with strong upward momentum. Double Stochastics and Ergodic Oscillator printed in their extreme upper levels respectively. A quick retracement down was followed by a moderate degree incline that began to form an ascending triangle (continued from yesterday's close). Clearing the top of the triangle, there was a clear breakout where all the indicators went into extremely positive levels. What had been resistance at the top of the ascending triangle, turned support as prices retraced back down. These levels were quickly bought back up which took us above the All-Time closing high of 2007. The final four minutes of trading the highs backed off about three points, with the Ergodic Oscillator rollig over on the 6765  Tick chart.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Fibonacci Fan to the Tick Accuracy


Anchoring the Fibonacci Fan at the low, we make sure price is contained by the .618 tangent on a bar closing basis. This method took us to the exact price off the open on the next day and to the high of the day at the close. The day after that (today), price declines lost momentum at the .382 tangent--notice the bars in the premarket changed from red to blue indicating the 5-35-5 MACD was losing momentum. Price then bounced off the .5 tangent to retest the .382 from below. Failure there took price to the .618 tangent which offered strong support twice, once on the declines at the open, and again on a retest after a failure at the .5 tangent. A short covering rally ensued that took price to the .382 tangent once more that resisted Futures from going higher. Prices oscillated around this level, then cleared, retraced, and finally rallied above. The .382 tangent then turned to support for the remainder of the trading day, on into the close, with the final print at 4pm resting exactly on the line.

Gartley AB=CD UK100 Daily Interval


Another troubling sign for the bulls. This is a Gartley pattern on the UK100.

Gartley AB=CD S&P 500 & Dow 30 Daily Interval



This is a troubling pattern for bulls. These are daily charts of the S&P 500 and Dow 30. Please see post on one minute intervals for the implied accuracy of these indicators.

Gartley AB=CD (Bull & Bear) One Minute Interval


The accuracy of this harmonic pattern is clearly evident on the one minute interval of the S&P 500.

dWbShadowTrader Quad


Prices fell under the MA's overnight. A hammer candle was printed at the open on the 21 minute chart with a close at the Point of Control (POC) of the last 20 days. Advance/Decline, Up/Down Volume, & TICK were all considerably negative at the open. Down Volume continued into the lows, but divergence was seen with a PPS buy arrow on the Breadth and steadily rising Advancers over Decliners. Prices rallied all the way to the Value Area High from two days ago, ultimately failing there but finding support at the Value Area Low. This action happened with the Breadth and Up/Down Volume breaking above their respective MA's. There was a retest of the POC, that was successful, and a short covering rally that cleared the VAH and took prices above the MA's. This coincided with the highest TICK reading of the day. The top of the Value Area for the last 20 days capped the up move at the close. Double Stochastics were able to lift out of extremely bearish levels at the open to a bullish reading on the Fast Stochatic (Slow Stochastic rose above zero but never went into bullish territory). The Ergodic Oscillator began rising prior to the open and cleared zero at lunch, but never saw significantly higher levels than that and rolled over at the close. After the bell, prices fell back to the MA's and VAH. PPS printed a sell arrow just prior to the bell and there was a large move of Down Volume on the indicator.

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765 TTM



TTM Wave A fell below zero in the collapse overnight and into the premarket hours in the morning. A squeeze formed at the lows off the open, with A wave rising and C wave positive prices broke higher with support from Williams' Alligator. There was another squeeze midday at the 1550 level that ultimately took prices higher. The final hours of the trading day, S&P 500 Futures were in a squeeze, and prices fell below Williams' Alligator Jaw (Blue MA). In the final fifteen minutes after the bell prices tested the Alligator's Jaw overhead and failed, taking prices lower.

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765



Prices gapped lower after hours considerably. Opening under MA's on the 233 Tick chart, price tested overhead resistance and went lower a few ticks. Double Stochastics and Ergodic were extremely negative at the bell, but formed bullish divergence at the low. Price then had a failed new low and bounced higher for a fresh new high. As price approached the 1550 level it initially failed. Once it broke above, there was more consolidation and sideways action at the 1550 level, but now acting as support. Prices rallied off a double bottom at 1550 and rallied into the close, finishing at the high of the day. On our longer term Tick charts, the MA's gave incredibly accurate trading signals. We opened well below the MA's across all the long term Ticks, and had bearish reading on Ergodic and Double Stochastics. On the short covering rally at 10am prices found first resistance at the overhead MA's. Once they were breached, they turned into support in the afternoon as price bounced off of the MA's and rallied into the close. In the fifteen minutes after the bell, Futures sank back to the MA's on the 6765 Tick and fell below them on the intermediate to long term Tick charts, with Ergodic and Double Stochastics rolling over.

Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Market Internals -- Decreased Volume Into Buying


Please note yesterday's Market Internals where we saw a nearly ten percent increase in NYSE volume pick-up. Today into the highs, and above the Value Area High, a marked 8.62% decrease on the NYSE and 12.28% drop on the Nasdaq in Overall Volume. Short covering rallies weaken market internals, not strengthen them. All we are seeing at these highs is more short covering. The market has been oscillating from overextended to the short side to overextended to the long side for the better part of ten days. This is indicative of short term traders controlling the price action.

dWbShadowTrader Quad


The largest area of volume on the Market Profile coincided with the top of the Value Area High. Price subtly dipped into the POC before reversing up on a classic technical Wyckoff 'Spring'. Person's PPS issued a buy arrow simultaneously on the Advance/Decline, Up/Down Volume and TICK at 13:30hrs. The MA's were rising at a nice angle at this same point and pushed the indicators higher into the close. The areas on the TPO profile where there had been thin trading were easily migrated through as price rallied to highs at the close.

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765 TTM



There were some nice trade set-ups on the TTM Squeeze on the shorter term Tick charts as volatility coiled. We had a double bottom mid-day that produced Squeezes on all of the long term Tick charts. The trade direction was a high probability up move with the A-Wave above zero and the C-Wave contracting from the bottom, along with Williams Alligator's Jaw (Blue MA) supporting price at the retracements from highs.

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765



Prices dipped under the MA's briefly off the open on the 233 Tick chart, but the Double Stochastics and Ergodic Oscillator showed bullish divergence. Prices managed to stay above MA's from the premarket through the close on our long term Tick chart with strong readings on the indicators throughout.

Market Internals -- Increasing Volume into Selling


Notice the almost 9% increase in NYSE Overall Volume today. The short term players have been controlling this market for two weeks now. It appears that some of the longer term players are beginning to initiate new short positions.

Sunday Forecast of Sell-off Comes to Fruition


Seeing this chart was not necessary, and I did not have the benefit of having it in front of me Sunday night, when I forecasted a nasty sell-off Monday if Futures opened during NY Market Hours at the levels they traded up to during the premarket. We were so overextended at those levels, and it was totally apparent simply by looking at the Market Profile. Seven of the prior ten days Value Area had closed under 1550, and each time it went over that level brought with it strong initiated selling. There is no doubt distribution has been taking place for almost two weeks now (take a look at Chaikin Money Flow on 34 and 89 periods).

dWbShadowTrader Quad


The market opened with strong bullish ratios of breadth on both the NYSE and NASDAQ. These quickly evaporated and the Market Profile of the day fell off a cliff and brought price with it down to the Value Area High last Friday's trading. We found support there temporarily and saw a stabilizing effect on the Up/Down Volume, TICK, and ADVN/DECN, before ultimately breaking down and heading to new low readings for the day. The Value Area going back two trading days (last week, Thursday) had a prominent role at the lows as we bounced off of VAL, traded back and forth between POC and VAH, before finding support at POC and taking prices rallying into the close.

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765 TTM



A squeeze developed off the open on the low term Tick charts that caused a retracement of the overnight new highs. A squeeze then developed on the longer term Tick charts that once broken took us to new lows in a matter of a couple hours. A small squeeze developed at the lows that prompted price to rally into the close.

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765



Price fell under the MA's on the lower term Tick charts almost off the open. We ran into the MA's on the longer term Tick charts by 10am, but the momentum was too strong and sliced right through to new lows. After a defineable wave pattern completed, price rallied up to overhead resistance from the long term Tick chart MA's, where sellers stepped back in and we went lower once more for a retest of the lows. With a failed new low, price rallied into the close near 1550.

Sunday, March 24, 2013

Law of Vibration



The premarket Futures session began about three hours ago. If the market opens in a little over twelve hours at the current levels, expect to see considerable selling back to the bottom of the channel and possibly through it. Notice the symmetry between the action Monday and today's open. Just following the laws of vibration, price declined to the 38.2% extension and then climbed up to the 38.2% extension on the top side. The reason price has risen is the fact that the smart money is distributing and no one wants to be in long positions at these levels. Determined to sell, traders are getting out regardless of higher prices.

Market Profile



Notice that although we closed on highs Friday, the Value Area and POC were considerably lower. This points to traders not wanting to hold long positions over the weekend (into Monday), and the trend has continued with price up even higher as of this posting.

*Note the Extended Monkey Bars (Lower Chart) is only displaying NY Market Hours, after hours trading is not included.

Friday, March 22, 2013

dWbShadowTrader Quad



The Value Area played an extremely prominent role in today's  auction. Price tested VAL (Value Area Low) overnight and failed on the first attempt, taking us down to make new intraday lows. On the retest, an ascending triangle formation assisted to take price through VAL to the POC (Point of Control). Shorts were squeezed here and price rallied beyond the POC. As seen many times before, almost as if to rub it in, price came back to retest the POC twice more, but at those points with it acting as support. The rally continued to the VAH (Value Area High), broke through and found some sellers at the downtrend channel from the highs of last week. The VAH turned into support and sent price back up to the trendline once more making new highs. Consolidation took place for the next part of the day as the auction worked its way back down to the VAH in a beautiful ABC leg. Acting as strong support once more, the VAH rejected any further lows and sent price over 1550 where it closed for the week.

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765 TTM


Hopefully the concept of the TTM squeeze is becoming more apparent with continued postings. The indicator set-up at least two profitable trades, one short, and one long today--the breaks out of these were pretty easy to identify in real-time by watching the Wave and the position of the price relative to the Bollinger Band. To explain, if the Bollinger Band were displayed on the 6765 Tick chart we would see that price was running up against the upper band in the morning and coiling along the upper band for the second half of the day. If the histogram on the Squeeze is positive (Cyan/Blue) price is against the upper Bollinger Band and if it is negative (Red/Yellow) price is against the lower Bollinger Band. The squeeze turned green for three bars into the close, however the A Wave has not shown much of an increase at all. This action could act in the form of an analogy to a rubber band being snapped, where price has been pulled up away from the center and the snapping action will be downward, back through the area from which it originated.

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765



Price rallied into the close once it was able to clear the MA's on the 233 Tick chart that had been overhead the majority of the day. Price held above the 6765 tick chart 60 SMA and 110 EMA for the entire day, except for the premarket. The dWb_DoubleStochastic finished the day in extreme bullish territory; however, the dWb_ErgodicOscillator showed a bearish divergence with price making its High of the Day, while a lower high registered on the indicator at the close. A third consolidation down intersected directly with the MA's and sent the market on a rally over 1550 at the close.

dWbBreadth thinkScript


To Apply to ThinkorSwim by TDAmeritrade
Choose 'New' in the Edit Studies Dialog Box
Name the Study Appropriately
Paste Code
Apply, Ok

Done!

dWbBreadth

#NYSE Breath ratio
def NYSEratio =  if (close("$UVOL") >= close("$DVOL")) then (close("$UVOL") / close("$DVOL")) else -( close("$DVOL") / close("$UVOL")) ;
plot NYratio = Round(NYSEratio, length);


NYratio.DefineColor("NYSEup", Color.UPTICK);
NYratio.DefineColor("NYSEdown", Color.DOWNTICK);
NYratio.AssignValueColor(if NYSEratio >= 0 then NYratio.Color("NYSEup") else NYratio.Color("NYSEdown"));

AddLabel(yes, Concat(NYratio, " :1 NYSE"), (if NYSEratio >= 0 then NYratio.Color("NYSEup") else NYratio.Color("NYSEdown")));



#Nasdaq Breath ratio
def NASDratio =  if (close("$UVOL/Q") >= close("$DVOL/Q")) then (close("$UVOL/Q") / close("$DVOL/Q")) else -( close("$DVOL/Q") / close("$UVOL/Q")) ;
plot Qratio = Round(NASDratio, length);

Qratio.DefineColor("NASup", Color.UPTICK);
Qratio.DefineColor("NASdown", Color.DOWNTICK);
Qratio.AssignValueColor(if NASDratio >= 0 then Qratio.Color("NASup") else Qratio.Color("NASdown"));

AddLabel(yes, Concat(Qratio, " :1 NASD"), (if NASDratio >= 0 then Qratio.Color("NASup") else Qratio.Color("NASdown")));


#ZeroLine

plot zeroline = 0;
zeroline.AssignValueColor(if NYSEratio > NYSEratio[1] then Color.GREEN else Color.RED);
zeroline.SetLineWeight(1);
zeroline.HideTitle();
zeroline.HideBubble();

dWbValueArea thinkScript


To Apply to ThinkorSwim by TDAmeritrade
Choose 'New' in the Edit Studies Dialog Box
Name the Study Appropriately
Paste Code
Apply, Ok

Done!

Each day input the VAL, VAL, POC, and Pivot from ShadowTrader either from the Tools, MyTrade subtab in the ThinkorSwim platform, or directly from their site at ShadowTrader.net
*Hint: Set the opening time to '1' instead of '9:30' to have the study plot after hours...

dWbValueArea

#Inputs
input Pivot = 0.00;#Hint Pivot: Must be manually entered daily, tinyurl.com/3lbmu4o
input VAH   = 0.00;#Hint VAH: Must be manually entered daily, tinyurl.com/3lbmu4o
input POC   = 0.00;#Hint POC: Must be manually entered daily, tinyurl.com/3lbmu4o
input VAL   = 0.00;#Hint VAL: Must be manually entered daily, tinyurl.com/3lbmu4o
input Automate = yes;#Hint Automate: This will calc & dispaly pivot values automatically with “Pivot” input. Value Area will always display.
input ProximityPlot = no;#Hint ProximityPlot: Only plots pivots when applicable. If “Automate” is “no”, this option doesnt matter. Value Area will always display.
input PivotBubbles = yes;#Hint PivotBubbles: Shows bubbles on pivot plot lines. If ProximityPlot= yes, bubbles are always off.
input Labels = { default “Proximity”, “Off”, “All”};#Hint Labels: Labels at top of chart. Proximity=labels will display only when applicable.
input ShowPivot = no;#Hint ShowPivot: Some people do not use the pivot point and do not want it displayed.
input ShowLevel4 = no;#Hint ShowLevel4: Will display S4 and R4 for volatile days.
input CloudStartTime = 0530;#Hint CloudStartTime: Move to an earlier time to shift bubbles to the left if bubbles are interfering with chart view.
input ShowCloud = yes;#Hint ShowCloud: Shows the value area as a cloud.
input LabelEsChartOnly = yes;#Hint LabelEsChartOnly: Removes Value Labels(“Above Value”etc.) from chart when another symbol is entered(ex. GOOG).

#Value Area Functions
def VArea = if close >= VAL and close <= VAH then 1 else 0;
def VAreaabove = if close > VAH then 1 else 0;
def VAreabelow = if close < VAL then 1 else 0;
def EStest = if close > close (“/es”) – 15 and close < close (“/es”) + 15 then 1 else 0;
def ESchartonly = if LabelEsChartOnly then EStest else 1;
def NotZero = if VAH > 0 and VAL > 0 then 1 else 0;
def PNotZero = if Pivot > 0 then 1 else 0;

#Previous Day Functions
def Day   = GetDayOfWeek(GetYYYYMMDD() );
def RegHrs = SecondsTillTime(1545) >= 0 and SecondsFromTime(0930) >= 0;
rec PLow  =  CompoundValue(1, if Day == Day[1] and RegHrs and low < PLow[1] then low else if SecondsFromTime(0930) <= 0 and RegHrs then low else PLow[1], low);
rec PHigh = CompoundValue(1, if Day == Day[1] and RegHrs and high > PHigh[1] then high else if SecondsFromTime(0930) <= 0 and RegHrs then high else PHigh[1], high);
rec PrevLow  = if Day != Day[1] then PLow[1]  else PrevLow[1];
rec PrevHigh = if Day != Day[1] then PHigh[1] else PrevHigh[1];

#Time Functions
def AfterHours = no;
def MarketCloseTime  = 1615;
def secondsFromOpen  = SecondsFromTime(CloudStartTime);
def secondsTillClose = SecondsTillTime(MarketCloseTime);
def OpenTest = if secondsFromOpen >= 0 and secondsTillClose > 0 then yes else no;
def MarketOpen = if AfterHours or OpenTest then 1 else 0;
def closeByPeriod = close(period = “DAY”)[-1];
def newDay = if !IsNaN(closeByPeriod) then 0 else 1;
def today  = if GetDay() == GetLastDay() and SecondsFromTime(CloudStartTime) >= 0 then 1 else 0;

#Pivot Functions
def RI   = (2 * Pivot) – PrevLow;
def SI   = (2 * Pivot) – PrevHigh;
def RII  = Pivot + (RI – SI);
def SII  = Pivot – (RI – SI);
def RIII = PrevHigh + 2 * (Pivot – PrevLow);
def SIII = PrevLow – 2 * (PrevHigh – Pivot);
def RIV  = PrevHigh + 3 * (Pivot – PrevLow);
def SIV  = PrevLow – 3 * (PrevHigh – Pivot);

#Plots
plot VH;
plot PC;
plot VL;
plot R1;
plot S1;
plot R2;
plot S2;
plot R3;
plot S3;
plot R4;
plot S4;
plot PP;
plot R_1;
plot S_1;
plot R_2;
plot S_2;
plot R_3;
plot S_3;
plot R_4;
plot S_4;
plot P_P;
if !IsNaN(close(period = “DAY”)[-1])
then {
    VH  = Double.NaN;
    PC  = Double.NaN;
    VL  = Double.NaN;
    R4  = Double.NaN;
    R3  = Double.NaN;
    R2  = Double.NaN;
    R1  = Double.NaN;
    PP  = Double.NaN;
    S1  = Double.NaN;
    S2  = Double.NaN;
    S3  = Double.NaN;
    S4  = Double.NaN;
    R_4 = Double.NaN;
    R_3 = Double.NaN;
    R_2 = Double.NaN;
    R_1 = Double.NaN;
    P_P = Double.NaN;
    S_1 = Double.NaN;
    S_2 = Double.NaN;
    S_3 = Double.NaN;
    S_4 = Double.NaN;
} else {
    VH  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and VAH > 0  then VAH else Double.NaN;
    PC  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and POC > 0 then POC else Double.NaN;
    VL  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and VAL > 0 then VAL else Double.NaN;
    R4  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and !ProximityPlot and ShowLevel4 and RIV > 0 then RIV else Double.NaN;
    R3  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and !ProximityPlot and RIII > 0 then RIII else Double.NaN;
    R2  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and !ProximityPlot and RII > 0 then RII else Double.NaN;
    R1  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and !ProximityPlot and RI > 0 then RI else Double.NaN;
    PP  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and ShowPivot and !ProximityPlot and Pivot > 0 then Pivot else Double.NaN;
    S1  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and !ProximityPlot and SI > 0 then SI else Double.NaN;
    S2  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and !ProximityPlot and SII > 0 then SII else Double.NaN;
    S3  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and !ProximityPlot and SIII > 0 then SIII else Double.NaN;
    S4  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and !ProximityPlot and ShowLevel4 and SIV > 0 then SIV else Double.NaN;
    R_4 = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and ProximityPlot  and close > (RII + ((RIII - RII) / 2)) then RIV else Double.NaN;
    R_3 = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and ProximityPlot  and close > (RI + ((RII - RI) / 2)) then RIII else Double.NaN;
    R_2 = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and ProximityPlot  and close > VH then RII else Double.NaN;
    R_1 = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and ProximityPlot  and close > VL then RI else Double.NaN;
    P_P = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and ShowPivot and ProximityPlot and close > SI and close < RI then Pivot else Double.NaN;
    S_1 = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and ProximityPlot  and close < VH then SI else Double.NaN;
    S_2 = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and ProximityPlot  and close < VL then SII else Double.NaN;
    S_3 = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and ProximityPlot  and close < (SI - ((SI - SII) / 2)) then SIII else Double.NaN;
    S_4 = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and Automate  and ProximityPlot  and close < (SII - ((SII - SIII) / 2)) then SIV else Double.NaN;
}
VH.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
VH.SetDefaultColor(Color.RED);
VH.SetLineWeight(1);
PC.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
PC.SetDefaultColor(Color.YELLOW);
PC.SetLineWeight(1);
PC.SetStyle(Curve.LONG_DASH);
VL.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
VL.SetDefaultColor(Color.GREEN);
VL.SetLineWeight(1);
R4.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
R4.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
R4.SetLineWeight(1);
R3.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
R3.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
R3.SetLineWeight(1);
R2.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
R2.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
R2.SetLineWeight(1);
R1.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
R1.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
R1.SetLineWeight(1);
PP.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
PP.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
PP.SetLineWeight(1);
S4.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
S4.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
S4.SetLineWeight(1);
S3.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
S3.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
S3.SetLineWeight(1);
S2.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
S2.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
S2.SetLineWeight(1);
S1.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
S1.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
S1.SetLineWeight(1);
R_4.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
R_4.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
R_4.SetLineWeight(1);
R_4.HideBubble();
R_3.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
R_3.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
R_3.SetLineWeight(1);
R_3.HideBubble();
R_2.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
R_2.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
R_2.SetLineWeight(1);
R_2.HideBubble();
R_1.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
R_1.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
R_1.SetLineWeight(1);
R_1.HideBubble();
P_P.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
P_P.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
P_P.SetLineWeight(1);
P_P.HideBubble();
S_4.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
S_4.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
S_4.SetLineWeight(1);
S_4.HideBubble();
S_3.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
S_3.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
S_3.SetLineWeight(1);
S_3.HideBubble();
S_2.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
S_2.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
S_2.SetLineWeight(1);
S_2.HideBubble();
S_1.SetPaintingStrategy(PaintingStrategy.LINE);
S_1.SetDefaultColor(Color.WHITE);
S_1.SetLineWeight(1);
S_1.HideBubble();

#Value Area Cloud
plot cloudhigh = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and ShowCloud then VAH else Double.NaN;
plot cloudlow  = if MarketOpen and newDay and today and ShowCloud then VAL else Double.NaN;
AddCloud (cloudhigh, cloudlow, Color.GRAY, Color.GRAY);

#Labels
AddLabel(MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and VArea and NotZero, “Inside Value Area”, Color.WHITE);
AddLabel(MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and VAreaabove and NotZero, “Above Value Area”, Color.GREEN);
AddLabel(MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and VAreabelow and NotZero, “Below Value Area”, Color.RED);
def ChartLabels;
switch (Labels) {
case “Proximity”:
    ChartLabels = 1;
case “Off”:
    ChartLabels = 0;
case “All”:
    ChartLabels = 2;
}
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close > VL and close < RII, Concat(“VH=”, VH), Color.RED);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close > SI and close < RI, Concat(“POC=”, PC), Color.YELLOW);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close < VH and close > SII, Concat(“VL=”, VL), Color.GREEN);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close > VL, Concat(“R1=”, RI), Color.RED);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close > VH, Concat(“R2=”, RII), Color.RED);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close > (RI + ((RII - RI) / 2)), Concat(“R3=”, RIII), Color.RED);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close > (RII + ((RIII - RII) / 2)), Concat(“R4=”, RIV), Color.RED);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close > SI and close < RI and ShowPivot, Concat(“PP=”, PP), Color.WHITE);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close < VH, Concat(“S1=”, SI), Color.GREEN);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close < VL, Concat(“S2=”, SII), Color.GREEN);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close < (SI - ((SI - SII) / 2)), Concat(“S3=”, SIII), Color.GREEN);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 1 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and close < (SII - ((SII - SIII) / 2)), Concat(“S4=”, SIV), Color.GREEN);

AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and NotZero, Concat(“VH=”, VH), Color.RED);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and NotZero, Concat(“POC=”, PC), Color.YELLOW);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and NotZero, Concat(“VL=”, VL), Color.GREEN);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and PNotZero, Concat(“R1=”, RI), Color.RED);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and PNotZero, Concat(“R2=”, RII), Color.RED);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and PNotZero, Concat(“R3=”, RIII), Color.RED);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and PNotZero and ShowLevel4, Concat(“R4=”, RIV), Color.RED);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and PNotZero and ShowPivot, Concat(“PP=”, PP), Color.WHITE);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and PNotZero, Concat(“S1=”, SI), Color.GREEN);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and PNotZero, Concat(“S2=”, SII), Color.GREEN);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and PNotZero, Concat(“S3=”, SIII), Color.GREEN);
AddLabel(ChartLabels == 2 and MarketOpen and newDay and today and ESchartonly and PNotZero and ShowLevel4, Concat(“S4=”, SIV), Color.GREEN);

AddLabel(!MarketOpen, ”NoPlotAfterHours”, Color.WHITE);

#Bubbles
AddChartBubble (!IsNaN(S1) and IsNaN(S1[1]) and PivotBubbles, S1, “S1”, Color.WHITE, no);
AddChartBubble (!IsNaN(S2) and IsNaN(S2[1]) and PivotBubbles, S2, “S2”, Color.WHITE, no);
AddChartBubble (!IsNaN(S3) and IsNaN(S3[1]) and PivotBubbles, S3, “S3”, Color.WHITE, no);
AddChartBubble (!IsNaN(S4) and IsNaN(S4[1]) and PivotBubbles and ShowLevel4, S4, “S4”, Color.WHITE, no);
AddChartBubble (!IsNaN(PP) and IsNaN(PP[1]) and ShowPivot and PivotBubbles, PP, “PP”, Color.WHITE, no);
AddChartBubble (!IsNaN(R1) and IsNaN(R2[1]) and PivotBubbles, R1, “R1”, Color.WHITE, no);
AddChartBubble (!IsNaN(R2) and IsNaN(R2[1]) and PivotBubbles, R2, “R2”, Color.WHITE, no);
AddChartBubble (!IsNaN(R3) and IsNaN(R3[1]) and PivotBubbles, R3, “R3”, Color.WHITE, no);
AddChartBubble (!IsNaN(R4) and IsNaN(R4[1]) and PivotBubbles and ShowLevel4, R4, “R4”, Color.WHITE, no);

#Opening Range Breakout Functions
input ShowORB = No;#Hint ShowORB: Displays 2 small, dashed lines at the top/bottom of the opening range.
input OrbTime = 30;#Hint OrbTime: Defines the time range for the ORB.
def Market_Open_Time  = 945;
def Market_Close_Time = 1600;
def Day1 = GetDay();
def pastOpen  = If((SecondsTillTime(Market_Open_Time) > 0), 0, 1);
def pastClose = If((SecondsTillTime(Market_Close_Time) > 0), 0, 1);
def IsMarketOpen = If(pastOpen and !pastClose, 1, 0);
def firstBar = If (Day1[1] != Day1, Day1 – 1, 0);
def secondsUntilOpen = SecondsTillTime(Market_Open_Time);
def regularHours = SecondsTillTime(Market_Close_Time);
def secondsFromOpen1 = SecondsFromTime(Market_Open_Time);
def pastOpeningRange = If(secondsFromOpen1 >= ((OrbTime - 15) * 60), 1, 0);
rec displayedHigh = If(high > displayedHigh[1] and IsMarketOpen and ShowORB, high, If(IsMarketOpen and !firstBar, displayedHigh[1], high));
rec displayedLow  = If(low < displayedLow[1] and IsMarketOpen and ShowORB, low, If(IsMarketOpen and !firstBar, displayedLow[1], low));
rec ORHigh = If(pastOpeningRange, ORHigh[1], displayedHigh);
rec ORLow  = If(pastOpeningRange, ORLow[1], displayedLow);
plot ORBHigh = If(MarketOpen and newDay and today and pastOpeningRange and IsMarketOpen and ShowORB, ORHigh, Double.NaN);
plot ORBLow  = If(MarketOpen and newDay and today and pastOpeningRange and IsMarketOpen and ShowORB, ORLow , Double.NaN);
ORBHigh.SetDefaultColor(Color.GRAY);
ORBHigh.SetLineWeight(1);
ORBHigh.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
ORBHigh.HideBubble();
ORBLow.SetDefaultColor(Color.GRAY);
ORBLow.SetLineWeight(1);
ORBLow.SetStyle(Curve.SHORT_DASH);
ORBLow.HideBubble();

Nasdaq Wave Count


This is the most alarming of all the counts. This shows the completion of a fifth wave, but also a seriously bearish implication of a head & shoulders pattern. Whichever pattern holds true, it would be certainly logical to take pause at these levels and consider protecting positions whether short or long. Greed can take these markets either way, and punish the herd in the process.

$DJI Wave Count


The wave count here looks like more gains are in store, although an ABC correction is under way. The extent of the decline here will help determine if it is in fact Wave 4 in the S&P 500 or a Wave 1 in the opposite direction.

S&P 500 Wave Count


A possibility exists we reach 1600, most likely that will depend on the action of the Dow. The wave counts of the S&P 500, DOW, and Nasdaq are markedly opposed. Please see similar posts...

NYSE Net Margin Debt - DEFCON 1


Stocks are Expensive Price-to-Forward Earnings


Stocks are expensive

Thursday, March 21, 2013

Money Flow Vs. S&P 500


As we have been documenting over the past few days, the markets' retracements up, first following the gap down Sunday night, and second, Wednesday, were short covering. Short covering always weakens the internals of a market. Having a visual of the money flow this week just confirms our analysis, but nonetheless it is nice to be reassured. The accuracy of this proprietary indicator speaks for itself. There is no doubt the smart money was distributing all week, taking profits, and even getting short. It is possible that we coil here longer and let the volatility pressure build. Ultimately, a strong move is going to follow regardless of how long it is postponed. Also, Watch out for bear traps: we've had at least two this week, already.

Fibonacci Channel .618 Extension


The .618 extension off of the channel from several days ago was coincidently the same level as the .618 retracement of the move up from the 19th. Despite the strong move down, the channel bent, but did not break as price rallied from the lows and managed to stay closed above it by 4pm.

dbShadowTrader Quad


As price tested and failed at the Value Area Low premarket, it took a good amount of consolidation and failed new lows to get the market to test back up anywhere near those levels. Mid morning we had a short covering rally, that ultimately led to new initiated selling that took us to new lows for the day. The PPS sell arrow on the Advance/Decline and Up/Down Volume charts at 12:10pm were great to key off of to initiate new short positions. S3 off of the ShadowTrader Pivots was able to bring price back to the .618 retracement by the close of business in New York, when a long tailed hammer formed at the climax of the decline.

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765 TTM



A squeeze set up this morning with the wave on the bottom and the volatility build-up took us lower. A second squeeze formed of longer duration with the wave now above, mid morning. Price shot up higher but the pattern resembled a short squeeze. A third TTM squeeze set up prior to noon and this took us to new lows with initiated selling. Currently, a squeeze has been building for the latter part of the day, that should move with some force upon its' release. A longer term squeeze is setting up on the 6765 tick chart for a high volatility move in the near future. The squeeze that set up earlier in the day was only four wide, and the move had some significant weight to it. The squeeze building will be of a much higher magnitude as it is already three times as long as the one prior.

Fibonacci Ticks 233-6765


Price opened up this morning with overhead resistance from the MA's. We bounced off them and set new lows. Price was choppy for a good part of an hour before turning up with the MA's. It got a bit overextended after rallying to new intraday highs and once overhead resistance from the MA's came back into play the market tumbled to new lows. On the long term tick charts, price had a difficult time getting up to the overhead resistance MA's. By the time it intersected with the 6765 tick MA's it was totally overextended and looked like what had been a short covering rally. With that weakness and no new buyers, initiated selling began and the market fell very quickly.