Sunday, February 2, 2014

S&P 500 Futures Hourly Technical Analysis Grid

E-mini S&P 500 Futures Contract (March 2014 Expiration)
/ESH4 Hourly

S&P 500 Futures Daily Technical Analysis

E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract
/ESH4 Daily Timeframe

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Market Profile & Outlook

Market Outlook

MONTHLY - Bullish. However fourth month higher. Overbought on this time frame. 

WEEKLY - Bearish. Large weekly decline engulfing last four weeks of consolidating action. 

DAILY - Bearish. A move below prior day's low, however trendline support and prior highs have held thus far. Outlook becomes more bearish if we close a daily bar below yesterdays low.

Dow Jones Industrial Average16417.01-41.23-0.26%
S&P 500 Index1781.56-8.73-0.49%
Nasdaq Composite4083.61-44.56-1.08%
Nasdaq 1003509.02-32.46-0.92%
Russell 20001127.73-16.41-1.43%
Spot Gold1256.67-14.30-1.13%
Crude Oil95.73-1.19-1.23%
NYSE Overall Volume3,992,839Kn/a-13.80%
Nasdaq Overall Volume2,357,846Kn/a-4.73%
NYSE Breadth2.34 : 1negative
Nasdaq Breadth4.25 : 1negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio29.98
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio19.04
NYSE Advancers/Decliners-1477
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners-1410
NYSE Trin1.56
Nasdaq Trin1.18
Market Profile and Pivot Points for ES and NQ for Tuesday 
How to put value areas and breadth bubbles on your charts - click here
Value Area High1787.253527.50
Point of Control1781.253508.00
Value Area Low1774.753492.00

Dollars & Cents

Volatility remains high as U.S. equities continued the tumble they experienced over the last few days. With stocks like Ford, Yahoo, DuPont, Amgen and other many major companies reporting earnings Tuesday volatility is likely to remain high. Then on Tuesday’s heels is the Fed announcement on Wednesday which should spread higher volatility into the currency market.

The EUR/USD created in interesting situation where we were looking for a close below Friday’s candle at resistance to provide confirmation of more bearishness. Well today it did close below the body of Friday’s candle but it only cleared it by 4 pips which is essentially meaningless. We will continue to watch for more bearish confirmation and a drop to support. (see EUR/USD below)

The EUR/GBP gapped lower on the weekend open and sold off from there taking back much of Friday’s gain. The move indicates that we took profit at the right time and are now watching for another bullish rally which should happen Tuesday or Wednesday. (see EUR/GBP below)

The GBP/AUD didn’t give us much to say as the pair had a very tight trading range and like the EUR/USD only traded 4 pips off its previous close. We are short this pair and will hold our position for now as we wait for it to sell off. (see GBP/AUD below)


FX Economic Calendar

Up and coming economic data relative to FX markets that may move markets this week.

DateTime (GMT)CurrencyDescriptionImportanceForecastPrevious
01/28/14 EURGerman Retail Sales (YoY)Medium 1.60%
01/28/145:00JPYSmall Business ConfidenceMedium 51.1
01/28/149:30GBPGross Domestic Product (YoY)High 1.90%
01/28/149:30GBPGross Domestic Product (QoQ)Medium 0.80%
01/28/1413:30USDDurable Goods OrdersHigh1.00%3.50%
01/28/1413:30USDDurables Ex TransportationMedium 1.20%
01/28/1414:00USDS&P/CS 20 City (MoM) SAMedium 1.10%
01/28/1415:00USDConsumer ConfidenceHigh8078.1
01/28/1423:30AUDWestpac Leading Index (MoM)Medium -0.10%
01/29/147:00EURGerman GfK Consumer Confidence SurveyMedium 7.6
01/29/147:00CHFUBS Consumption IndicatorMedium 1.43
01/29/1412:00USDMBA Mortgage ApplicationsMedium  
01/29/1419:00USDFed QE3 PaceHigh $75
01/29/1419:00USDFed Pace of Treasury PurHigh $40
01/29/1419:00USDFed Pace of MBS PurchasesHigh $35
01/29/1419:00USDFederal Open Market Committee Rate DecisionHigh 0.25%
01/29/1420:00NZDReserve Bank of New Zealand Rate DecisionHigh2.50%2.50%
01/29/1423:50JPYJapan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen)Medium  
01/29/1423:50JPYJapan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen)Medium  
01/29/1423:50JPYRetail Trade (YoY)Medium 4.00%
01/29/1423:50JPYLarge Retailers' SalesMedium 0.60%
01/30/140:00AUDHIA New Home Sales (MoM)Medium 7.50%
01/30/148:00CHFKOF Swiss Leading IndicatorMedium 1.95
01/30/148:55EURGerman Unemployment Rate s.a.High  
01/30/148:55EURGerman Unemployment ChangeHigh -15K
01/30/149:30GBPNet Consumer CreditMedium 0.6B
01/30/149:30GBPNet Lending Sec. on DwellingsMedium 0.9B
01/30/149:30GBPMortgage ApprovalsMedium 70.8K
01/30/1410:00EUREuro-Zone Economic ConfidenceMedium 100
01/30/1410:00EUREuro-Zone Consumer ConfidenceMedium  
01/30/1410:00EUREuro-Zone Services ConfidenceMedium 0.2
01/30/1410:00EUREuro-Zone Industrial ConfidenceMedium -3.4
01/30/1413:00EURGerman Consumer Price Index (YoY)High 1.40%
01/30/1413:00EURGerman Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (MoM)Medium 0.50%
01/30/1413:00EURGerman Consumer Price Index (MoM)Medium 0.40%
01/30/1413:00EURGerman Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY)High 1.20%
01/30/1413:30USDGross Domestic Product (Annualized)High3.60%4.10%
01/30/1413:30USDGross Domestic Product Price IndexHigh 2.00%
01/30/1413:30USDPersonal ConsumptionHigh 2.00%
01/30/1413:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ)High 1.40%
01/30/1413:30USDInitial Jobless ClaimsMedium  
01/30/1413:30USDContinuing ClaimsMedium  
01/30/1415:00USDPending Home Sales (YoY)Medium -4.00%
01/30/1421:45NZDTrade Balance (New Zealand dollars)Medium 183M
01/30/1421:45NZDBalance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars)Medium -248M
01/30/1423:15JPYNomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager IndexMedium 55.2
01/30/1423:30JPYHousehold Spending (YoY)Medium 0.20%
01/30/1423:30JPYJobless RateMedium 4.00%
01/30/1423:30JPYNational Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY)Medium 1.20%
01/30/1423:30JPYNational Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY)Medium 0.60%
01/30/1423:30JPYNational Consumer Price Index (YoY)High 1.50%
01/30/1423:50JPYIndustrial Production (YoY)Medium  
01/31/140:05GBPGfK Consumer Confidence SurveyMedium -13
01/31/140:30AUDPrivate Sector Credit (YoY)Medium 3.80%
01/31/145:00JPYHousing Starts (YoY)Medium 14.10%
01/31/145:00JPYAnnualized Housing StartsMedium 1.033M
01/31/1410:00EUREuro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY)Medium 0.80%
01/31/1410:00EUREuro-Zone Unemployment RateMedium 12.10%
01/31/1410:00EUREuro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)High  
01/31/1413:30CADGross Domestic Product (MoM)Medium 0.30%
01/31/1413:30USDPersonal IncomeMedium0.20%0.20%
01/31/1413:30CADGross Domestic Product (YoY)High 2.70%
01/31/1413:30USDPersonal SpendingMedium0.30%0.50%
01/31/1413:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY)Medium 1.10%
01/31/1414:45USDChicago Purchasing ManagerMedium5859.1
01/31/1414:55USDU. of Michigan ConfidenceMedium