Tuesday, March 8, 2011

/ES Fibonacci 261.8% Butterfly


Following the completion of the 161.8% move up from the summer (previous posts), the /ES gapped lower on Tuesday's open following President's Day. The first retracement up started after hours Tuesday to open at 61.8%(Red) Wednesday. This led to a 161.8%(Green) bar on the wick near the close that afternoon. The next retracement up came only to 38.2%(Gold) during the premarket hours, which led to the 261.8%(Green) bar on the wick near the close that afternoon. This could have been traded for the bounce up that followed, but had to be exited quickly as it failed to break the prior support at 161.8%(Green), and it resumed the down move closing once again near the 261.8%(Green). This filling action, twice at 261.8%, allowed for a stronger retracement up that eclipsed the 78.6%(Magenta) level of the entire move down. This move up opened Friday at the 161.8%(Green) acting this time as support and giving it a lift. Going forward, the retracement up that broke the 78.6% was after hours, but it never broke the first 61.8%(Red) retracement or the 78.6%(Magenta) during open market trading. This failure prompted the move back down and now blasted down through the 161.8%(Green) level to find support once again at 261.8%(Green). Once again we approached 161.8%(Green) from the bottom failing numerous times. After hours it traded above 161.8%, fell back and found support that sprung it higher into the open Thursday. It could not get beyond the 78.6%(Magenta) or 61.8%(Red) during open market hours. After the close, it tried numerous times to stay above those levels only to continually fail and open below both Friday never looking back. Another fierce down day occured, where once more it found support near the close at that key 161.8%(Green) level, while having traded above it on its descent Friday. There have been several retracements inside of these and I have done my best to document them in other posts, but it is fascinating how accurate the initial Fibonacci retracements drawn on the first move down have been in determining support and resistance going forward. It gives yet even more credence to the 61.8% Fibonacci Extension from 3/09/10 that ShadowTrader pointed out as well as the 161.8% Level from the 38.2% Retracement over the summer, 2010(see previous posts). The close on February 15, 2011 was a major cyclical turning point! This has been some great trading!!