Friday, August 5, 2011

/ES February 18th, 2011 Projections Still Proving True

The widest part of a triangle/pennant formation often gives tremendous insight into future price levels of support and resistance. Recall on February 18th, 2011 the confluence of Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions. I found great reassurance in my short position on the S&P500 Index futures contract by tracking these retracement levels. The first notable retracement of the year gave us targets for several trades going forward. The symmetry of the triangle first showed a prolonged coiling action. This action pointed to an an explosive move out of the apex. The low point of this move was precisely 100% of the peak of the triangle to the low, thus forming what is often referred to as a Gartley Pattern or AB=CD. As buyers came in at this level the index rallied but nevertheless did not manage to ever close over the 78.6% projection. Sellers came back in and took the index back to the lows of the triangle but failed to close any day below that level. Accordingly the buyers came back in and in one day sparked a rally that took the index to new highs for the year. Not coincidently, the high was only three ticks short of exceeding the 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Sellers immediately overwhelmed the demand and thus began a three day down move. It is certainly of note that the new high for the year was a closing daily bar of a shooting star that did in fact close negative and below the prior day's positive close. I have diagramed numerous other Fibonacci Retracements that you can find on similar posts here or at my business site, To keep the summary of this projection from becoming obtuse with information, I would lastly like to point out that the -200% projection stemming from the original symmetrical triangle was nearly the precise close of the index on August 4th. As for today, August the fifth, /ES came within twelve ticks of setting a new low for this year at 1160.29. Thank you for your time and attention. Good luck trading and as always we wish to thank our friend in earnest, meticulous study, Mr. Leonardo Fibonacci de Pisa.