Thursday, April 18, 2013

Be wary though...Look at the Value Area Long term


We are sitting right on the Point of Control for the 90 day, 89 minute interval, period...You can see there is some support to the left from prior day's Value Areas (3 days of Red, Dashed Yellow, Green along left edge. More can be seen in the picture below, there are two weeks worth)

But...

Value Area Low (VAL) is a long way away! The same way the Profile created a lower case letter 'b' that took prices up higher (showing auction rejection and bad fills at those lows); this current market has done the inverse with an inverted lower case 'b' where several traders were filled at bad high prices, that have again, been rejected by the auction. These are the people that are considered the proverbial 'holding the bag,' usually amateurs and retail traders that tried to jump on the back of a tired bull, and did so at the precise moment when the hill he was traveling up was beginning to crest.
In the end, this is a key line in the sand as we all know very well by know, 1550. The market has oscillated back and forth around that number for three weeks now. Ultimately prices resolve downwards to value and this three week period in hindsight becomes a clear rejection of the auction at these levels: failure, but for four days out of 21, to climb above-- only to be battered back down. I have little doubt we may see one more short squeeze prior to that migration lower. That's where I will put my money at least, because that has been the psychological pattern of traders this entire time: Over-extension to the top, then over-extension to the bottom. Why should this time be any different; regardless, Trade What You See. Great Advice from a Great Teacher, Larry Pesavento. In other words, always keep an open mind, the market will teach you something new every day if you allow it to. It is the best teacher in the world. The best part is the inner journey you take! Again, if you allow it. But man it's a beautiful thing! Awe inspiring.

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