Saturday, April 6, 2013

Fibonacci Ticks 144-6765


Today was the best trading opportunity I have had this year. I held a weekly put option with no time to expiration overnight. I rose very early this morning, 4AM here in Los Angeles, to the markets having gapped down considerably. There was a jobs report being issued at 5:30AM pacific time that had the market makers very nervous. I watched as the spreads became so wide that they became unable to enter or exit. When the number printed, approximately 80,000 against an expected 200,000 the gap down continued. I watched closely as the Double Stochastics had all gone extremely negative and the Ergodic Oscillator was well below zero. As we approached the Option Expiration Pivot the ADX began to decline despite further declines in price. All of this action was approximately thirty minutes prior to the opening bell. When the market officially opened we retested the premarket low, but bounced immediately higher. The spreads tightened on the options and on the third retest of the low I exited the three long puts I held in three separate transactions at 11.25. This was an incredible gain considering at yesterday's close the Ask on the strike was 1.60. I had entered at 2.50, so since they had not lost 50% of their value and my analysis forecasted and overnight drop, I held them. The shorts were trapped in what we have continued to see, overextension in each direction, and the market rallied all the way to the .382 retracement, approximately the level prior to the jobs estimates release. Prices coiled at these levels and then caught a second bid and rallied into the close. There was a very ugly inverted hammer on the hourly bar into the close as the sellers piled back on pushed prices back down. The high of the day was also the .618 retracement of the prior high as well as the Point of Control of the last twenty days.