Wednesday, May 15, 2013

AUDUSD Losses Likely Limited in the Interim- Scalps Turn Long



AUDUSD Daily Chart
Forex_AUDUSD_Losses_Likely_Limited_in_the_Interim-_Scalps_Turn_Long_body_Picture_2.png, AUDUSD Losses Likely Limited in the Interim- Scalps Turn Long
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Technical Outlook
  • All three objectives noted in last week’s AUDUSD scalp report have now been achieved
  • 7-days of consecutive declines for first time since December 05’- (Note: That year saw 8 days down followed by massive reversal which pared nearly the entire decline)
  • Daily RSI now sitting (matches) lowest level since May 2012 (right before the rally to 1.06)
  • Broader bias remains bearish- Risk of near-term correction has us looking higher over next day or so
  • Daily resistance at 9980, 1.0025 bearish invalidation point
  • Break below 9880 threshold looks for 2011 trendline support (currently around 9860)
  • Medium-term objectives at 9805 (Key Fib confluence) and 9700 (88.6% Fib retracement)
AUDUSD Scalp Chart
Forex_AUDUSD_Losses_Likely_Limited_in_the_Interim-_Scalps_Turn_Long_body_Picture_1.png, AUDUSD Losses Likely Limited in the Interim- Scalps Turn Long
Scalp Notes: Bottom Line: Although our longer-term bias remains weighted to the downside, the conditions here are set for a possible relief rally which may offer more favorable short entries higher. Our immediate bias therefore shifts cautiously to the long-side above 9880. Note that a break below this level may be required to see a test of the multiyear-long trendline support dating back to the 2011 lows with a rejection here and a move back above 9880 offering further conviction on a near-term bounce. Broader bias remains bearish so long as the 1.0025 resistance threshold is respected.
*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break below the 9960-80 range eyeing subsequent support targets. It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Use thisapp to distinguish the various trade sessions.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets
Timeframe
Level
Significance
Resistance Target 1
30min
9912
1.50% Fibonacci Extension
Resistance Target 2
30min
9938
1.382% Fibonacci Extension
Resistance Target 3
Daily
9980
61.8% Retracement
Bearish Invalidation
30min / Daily
1.0025
100% Extensions
Break Target 1
30min
1.0050
Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 2
30min
1.0075
78.6% Fibonacci Extension
Break Target 3
30min
1.0114
61.8% Fibonacci Extension
Break Target 4
30min
1.0140
50% Fibonacci Extension
Break Target 5
Daily
1.0163
61.8% Fibonacci Extension
Bullish Invalidation
30min / Daily
9885
1.618% & 138.2% Fib Exts
Break Target 1
30min / Daily
9857
1.732 % Ext / TL Support
Break Target 2
Daily
9805
78.6% Retrace / 1.618% Ext
Break Target 3
Daily
9701
88.6% Retracement
Daily
96
Profit Targets 22-24pips