Both of these show a 40 week trough at the end of June. We should see a strong move down into that cycle trough.
Monday, April 29, 2013
Nasdaq Analysis
Both of these show a 40 week trough at the end of June. We should see a strong move down into that cycle trough.
Market LookBeck II
(Reuters) - The euro rose against the dollar and yen on Monday after Italy
finally formed a government, ending two months of political uncertainty, but
further gains may be limited given expectations the European Central Bank will
cut interest rates this week.
Italy's new prime minister, center-left politician Enrico Letta, named a coalition government on Saturday, a move that drove Italian stocks higher and benchmark borrowing costs to their lowest level since October 2010 at an auction on Monday.
Some analysts say the euro could weaken should the ECB cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.75 percent currently when it meets on Thursday; a rate cut would erode the euro's interest rate advantage over the dollar and yen.
"The euro would likely weaken somewhat on that, but the overall move will be muted," said John Doyle, currency strategist at Tempus Consulting in Washington, D.C. "The expectation is starting to get priced in."
Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX Strategy at BK Asset Management in New York, said the euro could even rally after a knee-jerk move lower as some investors see a rate cut by the ECB as another effort to stimulate the euro zone economy.
"It's clear that the euro zone economy is really in a quagmire and it needs some kind of jumpstart," Schlossberg said. "There's almost nothing else available. A rate cut is better than nothing."
"Even though the market initially perceives the rate cut as a negative thing, it will actually be disappointed if they don't see the rate cut and that can drive the euro down."
Signs are growing that weakness in peripheral euro zone economies is spreading to the region's core, such as Germany, its biggest economy. Confidence in the euro zone economy fell more than expected in April, data showed on Monday, highlighting the souring mood among companies and consumers since March. . A drop in German inflation also contributed to the ECB rate cut argument, although the impact on the euro will likely be limited.
The euro was up 0.51 percent at $1.3093, with hedge funds cited among key buyers. It peaked at $1.3115, the highest since April 19, midway through the London session.
The U.S. economy grew more slowly than expected in the first quarter, and with inflation anchored, expectations are fading that the Federal Reserve could cut back its quantitative easing program anytime soon.
"That is weighing on the dollar," said Ian Gunner, portfolio manager at Altana Hard Currency Fund In London.
Gunner said only a cut in the ECB's zero percent deposit rate, which he did not expect, would cause the euro to fall sharply.
A two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting beginning on Tuesday will be watched for whether the Fed indicates any fresh risks to growth. If it does, there could be some trimming of long dollar positions put in place in recent months.
Against the yen, the dollar was flat at 98.01 yen, erasing losses after stronger-than-expected data on sales contracts for previously owned U.S. homes.
The dollar set a four-year high of 99.94 yen earlier in April after the Bank of Japan unveiled a major stimulus program.
The dollar has faced stiff resistance at 100 yen, but many expect it to firm against the yen as Japanese investors such as insurance companies and pension funds allocate some of their portfolios to overseas assets in coming months.
Japan on Tuesday will report March economic data on unemployment, industrial production and retail sales.
"The long-term trend of yen selling is likely to be intact. We are seeing a reversal today based on the fact that Japanese investors have not responded so far to moving money abroad," said Eric Viloria, senior currency strategist at Forex.com.
"If the data are positive or stronger than expected, the yen could get a boost from that," he said, noting the 97.75 dollar/yen level as proven support
Italy's new prime minister, center-left politician Enrico Letta, named a coalition government on Saturday, a move that drove Italian stocks higher and benchmark borrowing costs to their lowest level since October 2010 at an auction on Monday.
Some analysts say the euro could weaken should the ECB cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points from 0.75 percent currently when it meets on Thursday; a rate cut would erode the euro's interest rate advantage over the dollar and yen.
"The euro would likely weaken somewhat on that, but the overall move will be muted," said John Doyle, currency strategist at Tempus Consulting in Washington, D.C. "The expectation is starting to get priced in."
Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX Strategy at BK Asset Management in New York, said the euro could even rally after a knee-jerk move lower as some investors see a rate cut by the ECB as another effort to stimulate the euro zone economy.
"It's clear that the euro zone economy is really in a quagmire and it needs some kind of jumpstart," Schlossberg said. "There's almost nothing else available. A rate cut is better than nothing."
"Even though the market initially perceives the rate cut as a negative thing, it will actually be disappointed if they don't see the rate cut and that can drive the euro down."
Signs are growing that weakness in peripheral euro zone economies is spreading to the region's core, such as Germany, its biggest economy. Confidence in the euro zone economy fell more than expected in April, data showed on Monday, highlighting the souring mood among companies and consumers since March. . A drop in German inflation also contributed to the ECB rate cut argument, although the impact on the euro will likely be limited.
The euro was up 0.51 percent at $1.3093, with hedge funds cited among key buyers. It peaked at $1.3115, the highest since April 19, midway through the London session.
The U.S. economy grew more slowly than expected in the first quarter, and with inflation anchored, expectations are fading that the Federal Reserve could cut back its quantitative easing program anytime soon.
"That is weighing on the dollar," said Ian Gunner, portfolio manager at Altana Hard Currency Fund In London.
Gunner said only a cut in the ECB's zero percent deposit rate, which he did not expect, would cause the euro to fall sharply.
A two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting beginning on Tuesday will be watched for whether the Fed indicates any fresh risks to growth. If it does, there could be some trimming of long dollar positions put in place in recent months.
Against the yen, the dollar was flat at 98.01 yen, erasing losses after stronger-than-expected data on sales contracts for previously owned U.S. homes.
The dollar set a four-year high of 99.94 yen earlier in April after the Bank of Japan unveiled a major stimulus program.
The dollar has faced stiff resistance at 100 yen, but many expect it to firm against the yen as Japanese investors such as insurance companies and pension funds allocate some of their portfolios to overseas assets in coming months.
Japan on Tuesday will report March economic data on unemployment, industrial production and retail sales.
"The long-term trend of yen selling is likely to be intact. We are seeing a reversal today based on the fact that Japanese investors have not responded so far to moving money abroad," said Eric Viloria, senior currency strategist at Forex.com.
"If the data are positive or stronger than expected, the yen could get a boost from that," he said, noting the 97.75 dollar/yen level as proven support
Market LookBeck
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 14818.75 | 106.20 | 0.72% |
| S&P 500 Index | 1593.61 | 11.37 | 0.72% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 3307.01 | 27.75 | 0.85% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 2866.94 | 26.39 | 0.93% |
| Russell 2000 | 942.43 | 7.17 | 0.77% |
| Spot Gold | 1474.10 | 12.18 | 0.83% |
| Crude Oil | 94.73 | 1.73 | 1.86% |
| NYSE Overall Volume | 2,837,870K | n/a | -9.36% |
| Nasdaq Overall Volume | 1,511,658K | n/a | -7.79% |
| NYSE Breadth | 3.61 : 1 | positive | |
| Nasdaq Breadth | 2.31 : 1 | positive | |
| NYSE Breadth Ratio | 78.31 | ||
| Nasdaq Breadth Ratio | 69.77 | ||
| NYSE Advancers/Decliners | 1426 | ||
| Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners | 901 | ||
| NYSE Trin | 0.78 | ||
| Nasdaq Trin | 0.96 | ||
| $VIX | 13.71 | 0.10 |
MONTHLY - Bullish - Large body candle with expansion of range. Targeting all time high of 1576.09 now.
WEEKLY - Bullish - Range approximately equal to prior week's bearish candle.
DAILY - Bullish - Attempt at prior all-time high.
|
|
| |
| Value Area High | 1591.25 | 2870.25 |
| Point of Control | 1588.50 | 2860.75 |
| Value Area Low | 1586.00 | 2859.75 |
| R3 | 1606.58 | 2902.75 |
| R2 | 1599.42 | 2887.25 |
| R1 | 1593.83 | 2873.00 |
| Pivot | 1586.67 | 2857.50 |
| S1 | 1581.08 | 2843.25 |
| S2 | 1573.92 | 2827.75 |
| S3 | 1568.33 | 2813.50 |
ShadowTrader Sector Trend Scores
Yesterday's bullish ShadowTrader Sector breadth is the sixth bullish breadth day in the last seven trading days. Twenty one of twenty five sectors closed green. Three sectors are in overbought territory including XOI which has closed higehr eight consecutive days, along with UTY and TOB which have both closed higher five consecutive days.
dWbShadowTrader Quad
Advance Decline Breadth began the day positive and the MA's supported it all day. Up/Down Volume was similarly carried by the moving averages. In the premarket price bounce off of yesterday's Value Area High, and once the bears failed to take it any lower, it continued to new intraday highs, approaching the All-Time High. On the five minute interval the Ergodic Oscillator only approached the zero line on consolidations and the Double Stochastics showed two perfect examples of the rubber band effect, where the Fast Stochastic pulls back from the Slow Stochastic that is extremely positive, only to ultimately rejoin it and take prices higher.
Fibonacci Ticks 144-6765
Once price was able to regain support from the MA's it carried price all afternoon. The Double Stochastics went into extremely positive territory all the way out to the 6765 Tick Interval. On TTM Squeeze the alert fired to the upside and TTM Wave A failed to completely breach the zero line, instead launching upwards. Williams Alligator carried price as well with strong support from the jaw line. Woodies CCI climbed with a positive trend on all longer term tick intervals.
Economic Calendar
Economic Calendar
FORECASTER OF THE MONTH | ECONOMIC PREVIEW | MARKETS | ECONOMIC REPORTS
MarketWatch
| THIS WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIME (ET) | REPORT | PERIOD | ACTUAL | CONSENSUS FORECAST | PREVIOUS |
| MONDAY, APRIL 22 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Chicago Fed national activity index | March | -0.01 (3mo) | -- | 0.12 (3-mo) |
| 10 am | Existing home sales | March | 4.92 mln | 5.03 mln | 4.95 mln |
| TUESDAY, APRIL 23 | |||||
| 9 am | Market flash PMI | April | 52.0 | -- | 54.6 |
| 9 am | FHFA home price index | Feb. | 7.1% y-o-y | -- | 6.7% y-o-y |
| 10 am | New home sales | March | 417,000 | 421,000 | 411,000 |
| WEDNESDAY, APRIL 24 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Durable goods orders | March | -5.7% | -3.2% | 4.3% |
| THURSDAY APRIL 25 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Weekly jobless claims | 4/20 | 339,000 | 351,000 | 355,000 |
| FRIDAY, APRIL 26 | |||||
| 8:30 am | GDP | 1Q | 2.5% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| 9:55 am | Consumer sentiment | April | 76.4 | 74.0 | 72.3 |
MarketWatch
MarketWatch| NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS |
|---|
| TIME (ET) | REPORT | PERIOD | ACTUAL | CONSENSUS FORECAST | PREVIOUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONDAY, APRIL 29 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Personal income | March | 0.4% | 1.1% | |
| 8:30 am | Consumer spending | March | 0.1% | 0.7% | |
| 10 am | Pending home sales | March | -- | 3.9% | |
| TUESDAY, APRIL 30 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Employment cost index | 1Q | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 9 am | Case-Shiller home price index | Feb. | -- | 8.1% (yoy) | |
| 9:45 am | Chicago PMI | April | 52.8 | 52.4 | |
| 10 am | Consumer confidence index | April | 61.3 | 59.7 | |
| WEDNESDAY, MAY 1 | |||||
| 8:15 am | ADP employment index | April | 170,000 | 158,000 | |
| 10 am | ISM | April | 50.9 | 51.3 | |
| 10 am | Construction spending | March | 0.7% | 1.2% | |
| TBA | Motor vehicle sales | April | 15.3 mln | 15.3 mln | |
| 2 pm | FOMC announcement | ||||
| THURSDAY MAY 2 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Weekly jobless claims | 4/27 | 346,000 | 339,000 | |
| 8:30 am | Trade deficit | March | -$42.0 bln | -$43.0 bln | |
| 8:30 am | Productivity | 1Q | 1.0% | -1.9% | |
| FRIDAY, MAY 3 | |||||
| 8:30 am | Nonfarm payrolls | April | 160,000 | 88,000 | |
| 8:30 am | Unemployment rate | April | 7.6% | 7.6% | |
| 10 am | ISM nonmanufacturing | April | 53.5 | 54.4 | |
| 10 am | Factory orders | March | -2.9% | 3.0% | |
| LAST WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS |
|---|
| TIME (ET) | REPORT | PERIOD | ACTUAL | CONSENSUS FORECAST | PREVIOUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONDAY, APRIL 15 | |||||
| 8:30 a.m. | Empire State index | April | 3.1 | 7.8 | 9.2 |
| 10 a.m. | NAHB home builders index | April | 42 | 46 | 44 |
| TUESDAY, APRIL 16 | |||||
| 8:30 a.m. | Consumer price index | March | -0.2% | -0.1% | 0.7% |
| 8:30 a.m. | Core CPI | March | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 8:30 a.m. | Housing starts | March | 1.04 mln | 933,000 | 968,000 |
| 9:15 a.m. | Industrial production | March | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| WEDNESDAY, APRIL 17 | |||||
| 2 pm | Beige Book | ||||
| THURSDAY APRIL 18 | |||||
| 8:30 a.m. | Weekly jobless claims | 4/13 | 352,000 | 346,000 | 348,000 |
| 10 a.m. | Philly Fed | April | 1.3 | 4.0 | 2 |
| 10 a.m. | Leading indicators | March | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| FRIDAY, APRIL 19 | |||||
| None scheduled | |||||
| Long-term GDP forecasts |
| DATE | REPORT | PERIOD | FORECAST | PREVIOUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | GDP | 2Q | 1.5% | 2.5% (1Q) |
| Oct. 30 | GDP | 3Q | 2.5% | 2.5% (1Q) |
| Jan. 2014 | GDP | 4Q | 2.8% | 2.5% (1Q) |
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