AUDUSD Losses Likely Limited in the Interim- Scalps Turn Long

AUDUSD Daily Chart

Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Technical Outlook

• All three objectives noted in last week’s AUDUSD scalp report have now been achieved
• 7-days of consecutive declines for first time since December 05’- (Note: That year saw 8 days down followed by massive reversal which pared nearly the entire decline)
• Daily RSI now sitting (matches) lowest level since May 2012 (right before the rally to 1.06)
• Broader bias remains bearish- Risk of near-term correction has us looking higher over next day or so
• Daily resistance at 9980, 1.0025 bearish invalidation point
• Break below 9880 threshold looks for 2011 trendline support (currently around 9860)
• Medium-term objectives at 9805 (Key Fib confluence) and 9700 (88.6% Fib retracement)

AUDUSD Scalp Chart

Scalp Notes: Bottom Line: Although our longer-term bias remains weighted to the downside, the conditions here are set for a possible relief rally which may offer more favorable short entries higher. Our immediate bias therefore shifts cautiously to the long-side above 9880. Note that a break below this level may be required to see a test of the multiyear-long trendline support dating back to the 2011 lows with a rejection here and a move back above 9880 offering further conviction on a near-term bounce. Broader bias remains bearish so long as the 1.0025 resistance threshold is respected.

*We will remain flexible with our bias with a break below the 9960-80 range eyeing subsequent support targets. It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases. Use thisapp to distinguish the various trade sessions.

Key Threshold Grid

Entry/Exit Targets	Timeframe	Level	Significance
Resistance Target 1	30min	9912	1.50% Fibonacci Extension
Resistance Target 2	30min	9938	1.382% Fibonacci Extension
Resistance Target 3	Daily	9980	61.8% Retracement
Bearish Invalidation	30min / Daily	1.0025	100% Extensions
Break Target 1	30min	1.0050	Soft Resistance / Pivot
Break Target 2	30min	1.0075	78.6% Fibonacci Extension
Break Target 3	30min	1.0114	61.8% Fibonacci Extension
Break Target 4	30min	1.0140	50% Fibonacci Extension
Break Target 5	Daily	1.0163	61.8% Fibonacci Extension
Bullish Invalidation	30min / Daily	9885	1.618% & 138.2% Fib Exts
Break Target 1	30min / Daily	9857	1.732 % Ext / TL Support
Break Target 2	Daily	9805	78.6% Retrace / 1.618% Ext
Break Target 3	Daily	9701	88.6% Retracement
Average True Range	Daily	96	Profit Targets 22-24pips

Other Scalp Setups in Play- GBPUSD Clears Primary Objective- Short Scalps In Play Sub-1.54