(Reuters) - The euro headed on Wednesday for its biggest daily decline against
the dollar in nearly a year, weakened by talk of a euro zone interest rate cut,
while signs of economic malaise in Britain and Canada added to the U.S.
currency's appeal.
The yen also slipped against the dollar, with
officials at a weekend Group of 20 meeting not expected to scold Japan for a
monetary policy that has led to a sharp slide in the currency.
A bigger
focus for currency traders on Wednesday was monetary policy in Europe after Jens
Weidmann, a member of the European Central Bank's governing council, was quoted
by the Wall Street Journal as saying the central bank could cut rates further if
conditions in the euro zone worsen.
The euro fell 1.1 percent to $1.3033
afte hitting a seven-week high overnight and was on track for its largest
one-day slide since June. It also fell 1.1 percent to 127.05 yen , moving
further away from a three-year high above 131.
Support for the euro lies
around $1.3020, traders said, while a break could spark a decline toward $1.30
and $1.29.
Lower rates in Europe and tepid growth in other developed
economies enhance the appeal of the dollar, espeically now that markets think
the Federal Resreve may tighten its ultra-loose monetary policy by slowing asset
purchases later this year.
"When you dig a little deeper and take a step
back, this has all the hallmarks of a dollar rally because it is being directed
by interest rate differentials," said Paresh Upadhyaya, head of currency
strategy at Pioneer Investments in Boston. "That Weidmann admitted they are
looking at a rate cut emphasizes it."
So did data showing weak wage
growth and higher unemployment in Britain, which to concerns about fragile UK
growth and pushed sterling down 0.8 percent to $1.5238
The Canadian
dollar also tumbled after the Bank of Canada cut its growth forecast and left
interest rates unchanged. The U.S. currency rose 0.6 percent to C$1.0266.
The ECB decided to leave interest rates on hold this month, but
President Mario Draghi said the bank would "monitor very closely" all data and
stands "ready to act" to help the euro zone climb out of recession.
Euro
zone inflation eased in March, while investor sentiment in Germany, the euro
zone's largest economy, soured in April.
Ashraf Laidi, chief global
strategist at City Index Ltd in London, said the sharp market reaction
highlights "that the euro's biggest risk factor remains that of a rate cut."
U.S. monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative for some time
to come, and near-zero interest rates are unlikely to rise any time soon. But a
tapering of asset purchases would likely nudge Treasury yields higher and
reassure investors about growing strength in the U.S. economy.
Recent
U.S. economic data, however, has been disappointing, suggesting to some that the
Fed may not be as eager to tighten policy now as it was at its last policy
meeting. Data showed employers hired at the slowest pace in nine months in
March.
That, along with speculators excessive bets against the yen, may
have helped slow the Japanese currency's decline. The dollar rose 0.3 percent to
97.79 yen but remained well below the four-year high of 99.94 yen reached last
week.
Upadhyaya said signs that the Bank of Japan's massive moentary
easing would chase money out of the yen and into higher-yielding asset abroad
have so far been hard to find.
"That may have frustrated yen bears who
got pulled in at pretty poor levels" when the yen was nearing 100 per dollar, he
said. "But that's really just technical positioning, and I am still negative yen
in the medium term."
Matthew Lifson, senior trader and analyst at
Cambridge Mercantile Group in Princeton, New Jersey, said most traders expect
the dollar to hit 105 yen by mid-summer.
Upadhyaya said it would
probably take confirmation that the Fed will indeed taper its own asset purchaes
would accelerate that move. "For dollar/yen to break 100 on a sustainable basis,
the Fed has to be part of the equation."
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