Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Market Profile: 1 Pattern Recognition = Big Profits

Okay traders, if we can, I'd like to point out two or three examples on the Profile above, of the same type of trade-- simply meaning it can be set-up from in either direction, with an easy inverting the steps. First, we are going to count from the left, one day. Here we have a tall and slender appearance where it would appear some traders got excellent fills prior to the market moving up during the regular trading hours (this Market Profile includes all trades, 23.5 hours) The next day is very symmetrical with about the same amount of trades above as there are below the Value Area/Point of Control. The following day there was a brief amount of trades that fired at the highs, but it was again, quite symmetrical. When you get a three day set-up like this, with overlapping Value Areas of the first and third days, and higher POC's surrounding the second day , the fourth day carries a statistical average of breaking lower of approximately 80% *(the inverse is true as well, as we will document now). The fourth day brought with it a nice range expansion, well out of the Value Areas we had been in the prior three days.
If we can now, it should be easier, to just go to the lowest low on the profile. The day prior to this, has a lot of price action above the Value Area. In our progression from the prior trade, it is of note that this is a primary example of a Wyckoff 'Throwback'. The next day is quite similar to the one we just pointed out, but this day, a new low is formed. We also see the first signs of some traders getting bad fills outside of Value Area, indicating a reversal may be forming. The next day is a squatty, broad based profile, with the Value Areas overlapping and the POC marginally higher. There are fills outside of the Value Area once again, and here they are even further away from the low. The set-up creates a beautiful move to the upside, and is the same formation we had that took prices to the Lows, only inverted in this instance. The day following the breakout to the upside shows a nice inverted lower case letter 'b', indicating traders getting bad short seeking fills, and this is confirmed furthermore with the stacked, tight Value Area.
Finally, take a look at three days leading into the breakout to 1600, and above. It is once again the same formation, with overlapping Value Areas, lower case inverted letter 'b' on the surrounding days, and a major move to the upside the fourth day. Once you begin to recognize these set-ups, they will be a dominant part of your trading arsenal. If you have any further questions or just need more clarification, stop by the business site for contact information, and much, much more. Then leave your info on the site, email and/or call us, & myself personally, would be glad to assist. Also, our phone number is right on the main page at www.dWbstreet.com.